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Opportunity Cost in Trading

All traders have gone through a period they wished they never placed the trades. It could be impulsive and emotional factor that drove the trader to commit these trades. These are trades that he wished he can forget forever and hope to never repeat them sagain.

 

What is opportunity cost in trading?

Opportunity costs happen when we lose unnecessarily while we pass up the higher probability trades with higher reward-to-risk ratio. Everything in life has opportunity costs and in trading, it’s no different. This happens more often to new traders who do not understand this concept, usually causing them to blow out their accounts that shorten their trading career or hobby (however the trader views it).

When traders first start out, they usually begin trading without realizing the consequences of how they select their trades. These unnecessary trades would eventually would affect the future opportunities to profit and better their batting average. These trades tend to be losing trades but without calculating the probability of the success of the trade. When they lose, the equity has less of a chance of getting a better trade in the future. This is opportunity cost. For example, the trade takes a bad trade, loses $300 on the trade. Little by little $300 becomes $500, and then more. Finally when the market condition has turned in favor of the trader’s strategy, he no longer has the capital to take advantage of the opportunity.

The other opportunity cost that many don’t realize is a psychological cost. When a trader takes a bad trade, loses money, regrets for making a bad decision, causing him to be confused and losing his confidence. This loss of self confidence will affect the next trade which could be a high-probability trade. Due to the trader in a state where he’s scared of losing again, he may hesitate on the next trade that could be the next winner. He will realize it only after a long while the cause and effect and the vicious circle this opportunity cost creates.

 

How does solve this problem? The first thing is to re-evaluate the trading records and sort out the trades that were part of the trading plan and trades that were not (impulsive, on the fly trades). If they are more than a few at least 10% of the total trades made, then a solution must be found to eliminate these impulsive or unplanned trades. Better yet, add the total amounts from these impulsive trades to get a reality check on the costliness of these trades. 10% or more is excessive. Most successive traders would not even permit 1% of the trades based on unplanned setups. Understand that these impulsive trades tend to lead more unplanned trades, such as overtrading. This causes mental exhaustion and leads to losing streaks.